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The ruling camp’s approval ratings keep sinking. Since September, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party lost as much as 14 percentage points. For the first time since the 2015 parliamentary election, public support for Law and Justice drops to 25%.

Between December 6-12, the research company Kantar has asked Polish citizens about their voting preferences in the context of next parliamentary elections. For the government, it has been an especially tense period- the squabble around its threat to veto the EU budget, more protesters taking to the streets, acts of police brutality, and alarming COVID19 statistics.

Yet, the most noticeable drop in the ruling camp’s approval rating began in October, coinciding with the controversial decision of the Constitutional Tribunal to further restrict abortion laws. According to a survey Kantar conducted at the beginning of September, Law and Justice had an approval rating of 39%. A month later, it was 36%. In November, the number sank even lower- to 30%.

The pattern that emerges from looking at the statistics is clear: support for Law and Justice is waning because the party’s youngest supporters are turning away from it.

The numbers speak for themselves– in September, 39% of Law and Justice’s youngest constituents (aged 18-34) declared their support for the party, compared to 35% in October, and only 18% at the beginning of November. The same trend continues throughout December. It looks like young people started to turn away from Kaczynski's party after the Constitutional Tribunal’s controversial ruling on October 22. On the other hand, Szymon Hołownia’s “Poland 2050” movement has only gained in popularity, especially among that particular age group.

Kantar's December survey shows Law and Justice in virtual tie with the Civic Coalition- each of them with 25%. It is an unprecedented situation after Kaczynski's victory in the 2015 parliamentary election.

Before that, polls showed the Civic Coalition nearing Law and Justice only twice: in the spring of 2017 (Law and Justice – 32%, Civic Coalition- 27%) and last spring (39% and 35%, respectively). A virtual tie, however, is unprecedented.

The head to head results, however, are primarily due to the sinking approval ratings of Law and Justice, and not the Civic Coalition’s growing popularity. The latter has seen similar approval rates all throughout autumn: 26% in September, 28% in October, and 24% in November.

With the support of 13% of all surveyed respondents (no change since last month), Hołownia’s movement is the third most popular entity in Polish politics. In October, polls showed “Poland 2050” with 9%, in September- with 11%.

8% percent of the potential voters would cast their ballot for the Left, 6% would vote for Confederation, and only 5% for the Polish People’s Party. With 2%, Kukiz'15 would be under the threshold. 16% remain undecided.

The Kantar poll has been conducted between December 4-9, 2020, on a representative sample of 987 full-age Polish citizens using the CAPI [Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing] method.


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