Ten artykuł czytasz w ramach bezpłatnego limitu

"The result of the poll conducted by Ipsos, the third largest polling company in the world, which is responsible for conducting the official poll on the day of the run-off election for the main TV broadcasters, indicates that we are headed for 10 days of extremely nervous waiting," writes Piotr Pacewicz, the Editor in Chief of Oko.press, which published the poll - It is also highly probable that the exit poll result of the 50,000 voters reported on July 12th at 9 p.m. after closing of the ballots will not be conclusive, i.e. it will indicate a difference of less than 3-4 percentage points," he added.

One issue will have the largest impact on the result of the run-off election - how the votes of candidates who have dropped out of the race are distributed, and whether these voters will cast their ballot at all. According to the poll, Trzaskowski is supported by 86% of Szymon Hołownia sympathizers, 81% of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and 79% of Robert Biedroń, as well as 34% of Krzysztof Bosak. Andrzej Duda gained strongly only in the groups of Bosak's voters (44%) and those who did not vote in the first round - 65%.

The current president is seen as front-runner on 12 July by Poles - 60 percent of those surveyed believe that Duda will be re-elected. But the survey also shows that Trzaskowski's voters are more mobilised - 95 percent of them declare that they will vote in the second round. In the case of the incumbent president, this percentage is 88%. Bosak's supporters are the least determined - 55% declare that they want to go to the polling stations on July 12.

The current president may gain the most among the oldest people - those who are 60 years old or older. He is losing to Trzaskowski among women and is struggling in smaller towns, where Law and Justice (PiS) until recently ruled by wide margins. In cities with up to 20,000 inhabitants, the current president is leading only 51 to 48%.

According to Ipsos, the estimated real turnout is 65 percent, i.e. the same as in the first round of 28 June.  

The poll was conducted from 30 June to 1 July on a group of 1021 people.

***

Every day, 400 journalists at Gazeta Wyborcza write verified, fact-checked stories about the coronovirus pandemic for you.

They are on the front lines in 25 Polish cities. They work on the ground, reporting from hospitals and airports.

We have decided to open online access to our news stories and special guides focused on the issue of public health, for free.

The access to information should be equal for all.

Gazeta Wyborcza Foundation
DONATE
Czytaj ten tekst i setki innych dzięki prenumeracie

Wybierz prenumeratę, by czytać to, co Cię ciekawi

Wyborcza.pl to zawsze sprawdzone informacje, szczere wywiady, zaskakujące reportaże i porady ekspertów w sprawach, którymi żyjemy na co dzień. Do tego magazyny o książkach, historii i teksty z mediów europejskich. Zrezygnować możesz w każdej chwili.