Do: władz, urzędników, doradców politycznych i służb specjalnych Białorusi – wszystkich tych, którzy dobrze życzą swojemu krajowi i jego obywatelom.
W imieniu: ekonomistów, którzy jednogłośnie popierają poniższe oświadczenie.
Katastrofa gospodarcza na Białorusi jest pewna w przypadku dalszego siłowego tłumienia protestów i naruszania praw człowieka oraz praw ekonomicznych.
Potępiamy stosowanie przemocy wobec protestujących. Historia gospodarcza uczy nas z całą pewnością, że pomyślność każdego kraju zależy od transparentności i odpowiedzialności władz, a także respektowania przez nie praw człowieka i praw ekonomicznych. Sygnatariusze tego listu są zgodni, że bez szczerego zaangażowania w przywrócenie praw człowieka i zasad demokracji oraz bez rezygnacji z siłowego tłumienia protestów społecznych i politycznych Białoruś czeka katastrofa gospodarcza.
Ludzkich kosztów łamania praw człowieka nie da się już odrobić, ale wy, którzy macie wpływ na kierunek prowadzonej polityki, wciąż możecie dobrze zapisać się na kartach historii, ratując kraj przed dalszą tragedią.
W przeciwnym wypadku Białoruś czekają następujące klęski:
1. Przyspieszenie odpływu kapitału ludzkiego i finansowego
Inwestycje wyparują, dostęp do zagranicznego kapitału zostanie utrudniony, a zaufanie rynku utracone. Lekarze, inżynierowie i wykwalifikowani specjaliści będą wyjeżdżać na masową skalę, pozbawiając naród zarówno tkanki kulturowej, jak i talentów niezbędnych do budowania pomyślności kraju.
Białoruś nie stanie się „krajem IT" poprzez blokowanie z powodów politycznych dostępu do internetu swoim mieszkańcom i firmom. Wszelkie badania pokazują, że blokowanie internetu pociąga za sobą koszty ekonomiczne.
2. Rating kredytowy kraju spadnie do poziomu śmieciowego
Już i tak wysokie koszty obsługi białoruskiego długu publicznego jeszcze wzrosną, powodując zwiększenie
danin podatkowych i/lub obniżenie wydatków oraz pogorszenie jakości usług publicznych. Kraj, w którym państwo przejmuje administracyjną kontrolę nad trzecim co do wielkości prywatnym bankiem, nigdy nie będzie wiarygodny dla kredytodawców.
3. Stabilność makroekonomiczna zostanie utracona
Wynikająca z powyższego utrata zarówno kapitału ludzkiego, jak i finansowego w połączeniu z bardzo ograniczonym dostępem do funduszy międzynarodowych doprowadzi do destabilizacji makroekonomicznej. To z kolei spowoduje wysoką inflację, dewaluację białoruskiego rubla, rosnącą dolaryzację gospodarki, a nawet panikę bankową.
***
Białoruś jest małą, otwartą gospodarką z niewielkimi zasobami naturalnymi, która w dużej mierze musi
polegać na wykształconych i doświadczonych profesjonalistach, zagranicznych i rodzimych inwestycjach, dostępie do międzynarodowych rynków finansowych i stabilności makroekonomicznej.
Jak pokazuje nam historia gospodarki, brak szacunku dla ludzkiej godności prędzej czy później prowadzi do gospodarczej ruiny, tak jak odwaga urzędników potrafiących działać i mówić prawdę swoim zwierzchnikom staje się katalizatorem pozytywnych zmian.
Białoruś zasługuje na lepszą przyszłość. Stańcie po właściwej stronie historii!
Czekamy na Wasze listy, opinie, komentarze, analizy. Wyborcza to Wy. Listy@wyborcza.pl
Tłumaczenie listu: Tomasz Krzyżanowski
Lista sygnatariuszy
Elżbieta Adamowicz, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Professor
Aleś Alachnovic, CASE Belarus, Vice-President
Sergey Aleksashenko, Economist; Former First Deputy Governor, Bank of Russia (1995-1998); Former Deputy Minister of Finance (Russia) (1993-1995)
Carlo Amenta, University of Palermo (Italy), Associate Professor
Anders Åslund, Atlantic Council (USA), Senior Fellow; Georgetown University, Adjunct Professor
Ewa Balcerowicz, CASE (Poland), Chairwoman of the Supervisory Council; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Vice-President
Leszek Balcerowicz, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Founder; SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor; Deputy Prime Minister of Poland (1989-1991, 1997-2001); Chairman of the National Bank of Poland (2001-2007)
Tadeusz Baczko, CASE (Poland), Professor
Tamás Bauer, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main (Germany), Professor emeritus; Former Member of the Hungarian Parliament 1994-2002
Roel Beetsma, PhD, Amsterdam School of Economics (Netherlands), Professor and Vice-Dean
Marek Belka, Professor, Prime Minister of Poland (2004-2005); Deputy Prime Minister of Poland and Minister of Finance (1997 and 2001-2002); Director of the European Department in the International Monetary Fund (2008-2009); Chairman of the National Bank of Poland (2010-2016)
Maksim Belitski, University of Reading (UK), Associate Professor
Paolo Di Betta, University of Palermo (Italy), Associate professor of Management
Maria Bieć, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor
Marcin Bielecki, University of Warsaw (Poland), Assistant Professor
Maciej Bitner, Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member
Barbara Błaszczyk, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences (INEPAN); Chairperson of the Scientific Council of INEPAN; Vice Chairwoman of the CASE Supervisory Council
Michele Boldrin, Department of Economics, Washington University in Saint Louis (USA), Joseph G. Hoyt Distinguished University Professor of Economics
Philip Booth, St. Mary's University (UK), Professor of Finance, Public Policy and Ethics
Dmitri Boreiko, Free University of Bolzano-Bozen (Italy), Assistant Professor
Andrzej Bratkowski, Independent Economist; Former Minister of Spatial Economy and Construction of Poland (1992-1993); Member of the Polish Parliament (1989-1991)
Krzysztof Brzeziński, Oriel College of the University of Oxford (UK), College Lecturer
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor
dr Paweł Bukowski, London School of Economics and Political Science (UK), Research Economist; Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences
Joanna Clifton-Sprigg, University of Bath (UK), Assistant Professor
Maria Csanádi, DSc, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Research Advisor
Admir Cavalic, Association Multi (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Director
Arkadiusz J. Derkacz, University of Social Sciences (Poland), Adjunct Professor; “Ambitna Polska" Foundation, Member of the Council
Krzysztof Dobrowolski, University of Gdansk (Poland), Associate Professor; Dean of Economics Faculty (2008-2016)
Paweł Doligalski, University of Bristol (UK), Assistant Professor in Economics
David Domeij, Department of Economics at Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden), Professor
Sławomir Dudek, PhD, Pracodawcy RP (Poland), Chief Economist; RIED SGH Warsaw School of Economics; Association of Polish Economists (TEP)
Richard Durana, Ph.D. / Director, INESS - Institute of Economic and Social Studies (Slovakia)
Piotr Dybka, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant
Piotr Dworczak, Northwestern University (USA), Assistant Professor
Anthony J. Evans, ESCP Business School (UK), Professor of Economics
Andrea Farkaš, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra
Michał Federowicz, Graduate School for Social Research, Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, Polish Academy of Science, Director
Georg Fischer, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Austria), Senior Research Associate
Guido Friebel, Goethe University (Germany), Chair for Human Resources
Petrit Gashi, Faculty of Economics, University of Prishtina (Kosovo), Associate Professor
Renato Giacon, EBRD
Stanisław Gomułka, Polish Academy of Sciences, Member; Deputy Minister of Finance in Poland (2008); Professor of Economics in the London School of Economics (1970-2005)
Peter Gonda, Conservative Institute of M. R. Stefanik (Slovakia), Director and Economist
Jakub Growiec, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Professor
Maciej Grabowski, Centre for Strategic Mind-Set; Institute for Responsible Finance; Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of Finance of Poland (2008–2013), Minister of Environment (2013–2015)
Marina Grusevaja, RheinMain University of Applied Sciences (Germany), Professor for intern. Economics; Wiesbaden Institute for Law and Economics, Head
Jan Hagemejer, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw (Poland), Associate Professor
Christopher A. Hartwell, PhD, Bournemouth University (UK), Professor; CASE Fellow
Iraj Hashi, Business School, Staffordshire University (UK), Emeritus Professor of Economics
Irena Hefer, Gothenburg Business School (Sweden)
dr Peter Hill, School of Business, Law and Society, St. Mary's University (UK), Programme Director – Postgraduate Business, Senior Lecturer in Strategic Management
Vladislav Inozemtsev, Center for Strategic and International Studies (USA), Russia and Eurasia Program, Senior Associate (Non-Resident)
Annamaria Inzelt DSc, IKU at Financial Research Co. (Hungary), Founding Director of IKU
Andreas Irmen, Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg, Professor
Janusz Jankowiak, NWAI Brokerage House (Poland), Chair of Supervisory Board
Elena Jarocinska, European Business School Wiesbaden (Germany)
Marek Jarociński, European Central Bank, Researcher; Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Spain)
Halina Jascanka, ex-McKinsey, Senior Engagement Manager
Tomasz Karasek, Wharton MBA (USA), Executive; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member
Jakub Karnowski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant Professor; Independent member of supervisory boards; World Bank Consultant
Sergii Kiiashko, Kyiv School of Economics (Ukraine), Assistant Professor
Martyna Kobus, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Associate Professor
Marcin Kolasa, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
Andrzej Kondratowicz, SWPS University (Warsaw), Professor of Economics; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Founding Member
Paweł Kopiec, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant Professor
János Kornai, Harvard University (USA) and Corvinus University of Budapest (Hungary), Professor of Economics Emeritus
Dr Julia Korosteleva, School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London (UK), Associate Professor in Business Economics, Economics and Business Programme Coordinator
Ludwik Kotecki, Economic Advisor to the Speaker of the Senate (Upper House of the Parliament in Poland)
Joanna Kotowicz-Jawor, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Professor
Robert Kowalski, Economics Department, Stanford University (USA), former Assistant
Piotr Kozarzewski, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin (Poland), Associate Professor
János Köllo, Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Senior Research Fellow
Aleksandra Krajewska, Institute for Social and Economic Studies (Poland), Member
Natalia Kryg, Economist; University College London (UK); EBRD
Piotr Kuczyński, Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Financial Market Analyst
Mihaly Laki, Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Science, Economist
Andrzej Leder, Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, Polish Academy of Science, Associate Professor
Dariusz Ledworowski, PhD, CASE (Poland), Council Member
Elena Leontjeva, Lithuanian Free Market Institute, President
Piotr Lewandowski, IBS Institute for Structural Research (Poland), President of the Board
Dr. Ivan Lyubimov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Russia), Senior Research Fellow
Aleksander Łaszek, PhD, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Vice-President
Iga Magda, IBS Institute for Structural Research (Poland), Vice-President of the Board; SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
Krzysztof Makarski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor
Krzysztof Malaga, Professor of Economics; The Poznan University of Economics and Business (Poland), Director of the Institute of Informatics and Quantitative Economics; Directeur Scientifique de l'Association Internationale des Economistes de Langue Franc?aise (Drance)
Tomasz Marciniak, Strategy Consultant, Economist
Jakub Mateju, CERGE-EI and Czech National Bank
Fatmir Memaj, Faculty of Economy; University of Tirana (Albania), Professor; Albanian Socio Economic Think Tank - ASET, Executive Director
Tomasz Mickiewicz, Aston University (UK), Professor of Economics
Wojciech Młodawski, Business Consulting, Economist
Lorenzo Montanari, Property Rights Alliance (USA), Executive Director
Sierż Naurodski, CASE Belarus, President
Elena Nikolova, Consultant
Agon Nixha, University College London (UK) Alumnus, Economist
Jerzy Osiatyński, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Professor; Minister of Finance (1992-1993); Monetary Policy Council (2013-2019), Member
Wojciech Paczos, PhD, Cardiff University (UK), Assistant Professor
Radek Paluszynski, Department of Economics, University of Houston (USA), Assistant Professor
Piotr Palutkiewicz, Economist; Association "Agenda Polska" (Poland), Chairman
Martin Panek, Liberalni Institute (Czechia), Director
Julia Patorska, Association of Polish Economists (TEP), President
Jakub Pawelczak, University of Minnesota (USA), PhD Student
Mateusz Pipien, Department of Empirical Analyses of Economic Stability, Cracow University of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor
Paweł Pisany, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Assistant Professor
Grzegorz Poniatowski, PhD, CASE (Poland), Vice-President
Tanja Porcnik, Visio Institut (Slovenia), President
Sergiusz Prokurat, PhD, Institute of Economics Polish Academy of Sciences
Kamil Pruchnik, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), PhD in Economics Candidate
Jerzy Pruski, Idea Bank (Poland), Acting CEO; Bank Guarantee Fund, CEO (2009-2016); The International Association of Deposit Insurers, President (2012-2015); National Bank of Poland, First Deputy President (2004-2008); Monetary Policy Council, Member (1998-2004)
Artan Qineti, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Associate Professor
Slavo Radosevic, School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London (UK), Professor of Industry and Innovation Studies
Marek Radzikowski, PhD, MBA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant Professor
Dalibor Rohac, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), Resident Scholar
Dariusz Rosati, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor; Member of the Monetary Policy Council in Poland (1998-2004); Minister of Foreign Affairs (1995-1997)
Marek Rozkrut, PhD, Economist
Andrzej Rzońca, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor; Member of the Monetary Policy Council in Poland (2010-2016)
Maja Rynko, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant Professor
Dobromił Serwa, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor
prof. Bican Sahin, Freedom Research Association (Turkey), President
András Simonovits, Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Science, Professor Emeritus
Marta Skiba, Institute for Social and Economic Studies (Poland), Vice-President
Urszula Skorupska, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Deputy Director; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member
Andrzej Sławiński, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor; Member of the Monetary Policy Council in Poland (2004-2010), Director of the Economic Institute of the National Bank of Poland (2010-2017)
Piotr Soroczyński, Polish Chamber of Commerce, Chief Economist
Carlo Stagnaro, Istituto Bruno Leoni (Italy), Senior Fellow
Dr. Thomas Stahlecker, Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems- and Innovation Research ISI (Germany), Head of Business Area Regional Innovation Systems
Maciej Stańczuk, Polish Confederation Lewiatan, Economic Advisor; Entrepreneur
Małgorzata Starczewska-Krzysztoszek, PhD, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Assistant Professor; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member of the Board
Grzegorz Szczodrowski, PhD, Economics Faculty University of Gdansk (Poland), Assistant Professor
Marek Tatała, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Vice-President
Jan Teresiński, European University Institute (Italy), Researcher
Vera Tkach, Consultant
Valentin Toçi, University of Prishtina (Kosovo), Professor of Economics
Andrzej Torój, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor
Rafał Trzeciakowski, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Economist
Joanna Tyrowicz, GRAPE – Group for Research in Applied Economics (Poland), Director; University of Warsaw, Professor; IZA (Germany), Research Fellow
Mateusz Urban, Oxford Economics (UK), Assistant Economist
Eva Varhegyi DSc, Financial Research Ltd. (Hungary)
Piotr Wachowiak, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Rector-Elect, Director of the Institute of Management, Associate Professor
Dominik Wasiluk, Institute for Social and Economic Studies (Poland), Member
Joanna Wawrzyniak, Faculty of Philosophy and Sociology, University of Warsaw (Poland), Associate Professor
Janusz Wdzięczak, PhD, Thomas Jefferson Research Center (USA)
Jerzy Wilkin, Professor; Member of the Polish Academy of Sciences
Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw (Poland), Assistant Professor
Bartosz Witkowski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Dean of Undergraduate Studies, Director of the Institute of Econometrics, Professor
Paweł Wojciechowski, Former Minister of Finance (Poland), Professor at Wszechnica Polska University in Warsaw, Senior Fellow at Pułaski Foundation
Wiktor Wojciechowski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor
Marcin Wolski, PhD, Economist
Richard Woodward, CASE (Poland), Member of the Supervisory Council; University of Edinburgh Business School (UK), Lecturer in International Business
Tomasz Woźniak, University of Melbourne (Australia), Lecturer
Cezary Wójcik, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor; Center for Leadership, Founding Director
Tomasz Wróblewski, Warsaw Enterprise Institute (Poland), CEO
Marcin Zieliński, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Economist
Aleksander Żołnierski, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences
Wypróbuj prenumeratę cyfrową Wyborczej
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Wypłynął rosyjski agencik.
No, ale białorusini są biali, więc mało kogo to obchodzi.