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Do: władz, urzędników, doradców politycznych i służb specjalnych Białorusi – wszystkich tych, którzy dobrze życzą swojemu krajowi i jego obywatelom.

W imieniu: ekonomistów, którzy jednogłośnie popierają poniższe oświadczenie.

Katastrofa gospodarcza na Białorusi jest pewna w przypadku dalszego siłowego tłumienia protestów i naruszania praw człowieka oraz praw ekonomicznych.

Potępiamy stosowanie przemocy wobec protestujących. Historia gospodarcza uczy nas z całą pewnością, że pomyślność każdego kraju zależy od transparentności i odpowiedzialności władz, a także respektowania przez nie praw człowieka i praw ekonomicznych. Sygnatariusze tego listu są zgodni, że bez szczerego zaangażowania w przywrócenie praw człowieka i zasad demokracji oraz bez rezygnacji z siłowego tłumienia protestów społecznych i politycznych Białoruś czeka katastrofa gospodarcza.

Ludzkich kosztów łamania praw człowieka nie da się już odrobić, ale wy, którzy macie wpływ na kierunek prowadzonej polityki, wciąż możecie dobrze zapisać się na kartach historii, ratując kraj przed dalszą tragedią.

W przeciwnym wypadku Białoruś czekają następujące klęski:

1. Przyspieszenie odpływu kapitału ludzkiego i finansowego

Inwestycje wyparują, dostęp do zagranicznego kapitału zostanie utrudniony, a zaufanie rynku utracone. Lekarze, inżynierowie i wykwalifikowani specjaliści będą wyjeżdżać na masową skalę, pozbawiając naród zarówno tkanki kulturowej, jak i talentów niezbędnych do budowania pomyślności kraju.

Białoruś nie stanie się „krajem IT" poprzez blokowanie z powodów politycznych dostępu do internetu swoim mieszkańcom i firmom. Wszelkie badania pokazują, że blokowanie internetu pociąga za sobą koszty ekonomiczne.

2. Rating kredytowy kraju spadnie do poziomu śmieciowego

Już i tak wysokie koszty obsługi białoruskiego długu publicznego jeszcze wzrosną, powodując zwiększenie

danin podatkowych i/lub obniżenie wydatków oraz pogorszenie jakości usług publicznych. Kraj, w którym państwo przejmuje administracyjną kontrolę nad trzecim co do wielkości prywatnym bankiem, nigdy nie będzie wiarygodny dla kredytodawców.

3. Stabilność makroekonomiczna zostanie utracona

Wynikająca z powyższego utrata zarówno kapitału ludzkiego, jak i finansowego w połączeniu z bardzo ograniczonym dostępem do funduszy międzynarodowych doprowadzi do destabilizacji makroekonomicznej. To z kolei spowoduje wysoką inflację, dewaluację białoruskiego rubla, rosnącą dolaryzację gospodarki, a nawet panikę bankową.

 ***

Białoruś jest małą, otwartą gospodarką z niewielkimi zasobami naturalnymi, która w dużej mierze musi

polegać na wykształconych i doświadczonych profesjonalistach, zagranicznych i rodzimych inwestycjach, dostępie do międzynarodowych rynków finansowych i stabilności makroekonomicznej.

Jak pokazuje nam historia gospodarki, brak szacunku dla ludzkiej godności prędzej czy później prowadzi do gospodarczej ruiny, tak jak odwaga urzędników potrafiących działać i mówić prawdę swoim zwierzchnikom staje się katalizatorem pozytywnych zmian.

Białoruś zasługuje na lepszą przyszłość. Stańcie po właściwej stronie historii!

Czekamy na Wasze listy, opinie, komentarze, analizy. Wyborcza to Wy. Listy@wyborcza.pl

Tłumaczenie listu: Tomasz Krzyżanowski

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Elżbieta Adamowicz, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Professor

Aleś Alachnovic, CASE Belarus, Vice-President

Sergey Aleksashenko, Economist; Former First Deputy Governor, Bank of Russia (1995-1998); Former Deputy Minister of Finance (Russia) (1993-1995)

Carlo Amenta, University of Palermo (Italy), Associate Professor

Anders Åslund, Atlantic Council (USA), Senior Fellow; Georgetown University, Adjunct Professor

Ewa Balcerowicz, CASE (Poland), Chairwoman of the Supervisory Council; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Vice-President

Leszek Balcerowicz, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Founder; SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor; Deputy Prime Minister of Poland (1989-1991, 1997-2001); Chairman of the National Bank of Poland (2001-2007)

Tadeusz Baczko, CASE (Poland), Professor

Tamás Bauer, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main (Germany), Professor emeritus; Former Member of the Hungarian Parliament 1994-2002

Roel Beetsma, PhD, Amsterdam School of Economics (Netherlands), Professor and Vice-Dean

Marek Belka, Professor, Prime Minister of Poland (2004-2005); Deputy Prime Minister of Poland and Minister of Finance (1997 and 2001-2002); Director of the European Department in the International Monetary Fund (2008-2009); Chairman of the National Bank of Poland (2010-2016)

Maksim Belitski, University of Reading (UK), Associate Professor

Paolo Di Betta, University of Palermo (Italy), Associate professor of Management

Maria Bieć, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor

Marcin Bielecki, University of Warsaw (Poland), Assistant Professor

Maciej Bitner, Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member

Barbara Błaszczyk, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences (INEPAN); Chairperson of the Scientific Council of INEPAN; Vice Chairwoman of the CASE Supervisory Council

Michele Boldrin, Department of Economics, Washington University in Saint Louis (USA), Joseph G. Hoyt Distinguished University Professor of Economics

Philip Booth, St. Mary's University (UK), Professor of Finance, Public Policy and Ethics

Dmitri Boreiko, Free University of Bolzano-Bozen (Italy), Assistant Professor

Andrzej Bratkowski, Independent Economist; Former Minister of Spatial Economy and Construction of Poland (1992-1993); Member of the Polish Parliament (1989-1991)

Krzysztof Brzeziński, Oriel College of the University of Oxford (UK), College Lecturer

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dr Paweł Bukowski, London School of Economics and Political Science (UK), Research Economist; Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Joanna Clifton-Sprigg, University of Bath (UK), Assistant Professor

Maria Csanádi, DSc, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Research Advisor

Admir Cavalic, Association Multi (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Director

Arkadiusz J. Derkacz, University of Social Sciences (Poland), Adjunct Professor; “Ambitna Polska" Foundation, Member of the Council

Krzysztof Dobrowolski, University of Gdansk (Poland), Associate Professor; Dean of Economics Faculty (2008-2016)

Paweł Doligalski, University of Bristol (UK), Assistant Professor in Economics

David Domeij, Department of Economics at Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden), Professor

Sławomir Dudek, PhD, Pracodawcy RP (Poland), Chief Economist; RIED SGH Warsaw School of Economics; Association of Polish Economists (TEP)

Richard Durana, Ph.D. / Director, INESS - Institute of Economic and Social Studies (Slovakia)

Piotr Dybka, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant

Piotr Dworczak, Northwestern University (USA), Assistant Professor

Anthony J. Evans, ESCP Business School (UK), Professor of Economics

Andrea Farkaš, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra

Michał Federowicz, Graduate School for Social Research, Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, Polish Academy of Science, Director

Georg Fischer, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Austria), Senior Research Associate

Guido Friebel, Goethe University (Germany), Chair for Human Resources

Petrit Gashi, Faculty of Economics, University of Prishtina (Kosovo), Associate Professor

Renato Giacon, EBRD

Stanisław Gomułka, Polish Academy of Sciences, Member; Deputy Minister of Finance in Poland (2008); Professor of Economics in the London School of Economics (1970-2005)

Peter Gonda, Conservative Institute of M. R. Stefanik (Slovakia), Director and Economist

Jakub Growiec, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Professor

Maciej Grabowski, Centre for Strategic Mind-Set; Institute for Responsible Finance; Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of Finance of Poland (2008–2013), Minister of Environment (2013–2015)

Marina Grusevaja, RheinMain University of Applied Sciences (Germany), Professor for intern. Economics; Wiesbaden Institute for Law and Economics, Head

Jan Hagemejer, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw (Poland), Associate Professor

Christopher A. Hartwell, PhD, Bournemouth University (UK), Professor; CASE Fellow

Iraj Hashi, Business School, Staffordshire University (UK), Emeritus Professor of Economics

Irena Hefer, Gothenburg Business School (Sweden)

dr Peter Hill, School of Business, Law and Society, St. Mary's University (UK), Programme Director – Postgraduate Business, Senior Lecturer in Strategic Management

Vladislav Inozemtsev, Center for Strategic and International Studies (USA), Russia and Eurasia Program, Senior Associate (Non-Resident)

Annamaria Inzelt DSc, IKU at Financial Research Co. (Hungary), Founding Director of IKU

Andreas Irmen, Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg, Professor

Janusz Jankowiak, NWAI Brokerage House (Poland), Chair of Supervisory Board

Elena Jarocinska, European Business School Wiesbaden (Germany)

Marek Jarociński, European Central Bank, Researcher; Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Spain)

Halina Jascanka, ex-McKinsey, Senior Engagement Manager

Tomasz Karasek, Wharton MBA (USA), Executive; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member

Jakub Karnowski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant Professor; Independent member of supervisory boards; World Bank Consultant

Sergii Kiiashko, Kyiv School of Economics (Ukraine), Assistant Professor

Martyna Kobus, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Associate Professor

Marcin Kolasa, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor

Andrzej Kondratowicz, SWPS University (Warsaw), Professor of Economics; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Founding Member

Paweł Kopiec, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant Professor

János Kornai, Harvard University (USA) and Corvinus University of Budapest (Hungary), Professor of Economics Emeritus

Dr Julia Korosteleva, School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London (UK), Associate Professor in Business Economics, Economics and Business Programme Coordinator

Ludwik Kotecki, Economic Advisor to the Speaker of the Senate (Upper House of the Parliament in Poland)

Joanna Kotowicz-Jawor, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Professor

Robert Kowalski, Economics Department, Stanford University (USA), former Assistant

Piotr Kozarzewski, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin (Poland), Associate Professor

János Köllo, Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Senior Research Fellow

Aleksandra Krajewska, Institute for Social and Economic Studies (Poland), Member

Natalia Kryg, Economist; University College London (UK); EBRD

Piotr Kuczyński, Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Financial Market Analyst

Mihaly Laki, Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Science, Economist

Andrzej Leder, Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, Polish Academy of Science, Associate Professor

Dariusz Ledworowski, PhD, CASE (Poland), Council Member

Elena Leontjeva, Lithuanian Free Market Institute, President

Piotr Lewandowski, IBS Institute for Structural Research (Poland), President of the Board

Dr. Ivan Lyubimov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Russia), Senior Research Fellow

Aleksander Łaszek, PhD, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Vice-President

Iga Magda, IBS Institute for Structural Research (Poland), Vice-President of the Board; SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor

Krzysztof Makarski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor

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Jakub Mateju, CERGE-EI and Czech National Bank

Fatmir Memaj, Faculty of Economy; University of Tirana (Albania), Professor; Albanian Socio Economic Think Tank - ASET, Executive Director

Tomasz Mickiewicz, Aston University (UK), Professor of Economics

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Sierż Naurodski, CASE Belarus, President

Elena Nikolova, Consultant

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Wojciech Paczos, PhD, Cardiff University (UK), Assistant Professor

Radek Paluszynski, Department of Economics, University of Houston (USA), Assistant Professor

Piotr Palutkiewicz, Economist; Association "Agenda Polska" (Poland), Chairman

Martin Panek, Liberalni Institute (Czechia), Director

Julia Patorska, Association of Polish Economists (TEP), President

Jakub Pawelczak, University of Minnesota (USA), PhD Student

Mateusz Pipien, Department of Empirical Analyses of Economic Stability, Cracow University of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor

Paweł Pisany, Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Assistant Professor

Grzegorz Poniatowski, PhD, CASE (Poland), Vice-President

Tanja Porcnik, Visio Institut (Slovenia), President

Sergiusz Prokurat, PhD, Institute of Economics Polish Academy of Sciences

Kamil Pruchnik, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), PhD in Economics Candidate

Jerzy Pruski, Idea Bank (Poland), Acting CEO; Bank Guarantee Fund, CEO (2009-2016); The International Association of Deposit Insurers, President (2012-2015); National Bank of Poland, First Deputy President (2004-2008); Monetary Policy Council, Member (1998-2004)

Artan Qineti, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Associate Professor

Slavo Radosevic, School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London (UK), Professor of Industry and Innovation Studies

Marek Radzikowski, PhD, MBA, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Assistant Professor

Dalibor Rohac, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), Resident Scholar

Dariusz Rosati, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor; Member of the Monetary Policy Council in Poland (1998-2004); Minister of Foreign Affairs (1995-1997)

Marek Rozkrut, PhD, Economist

Andrzej Rzońca, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor; Member of the Monetary Policy Council in Poland (2010-2016)

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prof. Bican Sahin, Freedom Research Association (Turkey), President

András Simonovits, Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Science, Professor Emeritus

Marta Skiba, Institute for Social and Economic Studies (Poland), Vice-President

Urszula Skorupska, Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Deputy Director; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member

Andrzej Sławiński, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Professor; Member of the Monetary Policy Council in Poland (2004-2010), Director of the Economic Institute of the National Bank of Poland (2010-2017)

Piotr Soroczyński, Polish Chamber of Commerce, Chief Economist

Carlo Stagnaro, Istituto Bruno Leoni (Italy), Senior Fellow

Dr. Thomas Stahlecker, Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems- and Innovation Research ISI (Germany), Head of Business Area Regional Innovation Systems

Maciej Stańczuk, Polish Confederation Lewiatan, Economic Advisor; Entrepreneur

Małgorzata Starczewska-Krzysztoszek, PhD, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Assistant Professor; Association of Polish Economists (TEP), Member of the Board

Grzegorz Szczodrowski, PhD, Economics Faculty University of Gdansk (Poland), Assistant Professor

Marek Tatała, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Vice-President

Jan Teresiński, European University Institute (Italy), Researcher

Vera Tkach, Consultant

Valentin Toçi, University of Prishtina (Kosovo), Professor of Economics

Andrzej Torój, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Associate Professor

Rafał Trzeciakowski, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Economist

Joanna Tyrowicz, GRAPE – Group for Research in Applied Economics (Poland), Director; University of Warsaw, Professor; IZA (Germany), Research Fellow

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Eva Varhegyi DSc, Financial Research Ltd. (Hungary)

Piotr Wachowiak, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Rector-Elect, Director of the Institute of Management, Associate Professor

Dominik Wasiluk, Institute for Social and Economic Studies (Poland), Member

Joanna Wawrzyniak, Faculty of Philosophy and Sociology, University of Warsaw (Poland), Associate Professor

Janusz Wdzięczak, PhD, Thomas Jefferson Research Center (USA)

Jerzy Wilkin, Professor; Member of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw (Poland), Assistant Professor

Bartosz Witkowski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics (Poland), Dean of Undergraduate Studies, Director of the Institute of Econometrics, Professor

Paweł Wojciechowski, Former Minister of Finance (Poland), Professor at Wszechnica Polska University in Warsaw, Senior Fellow at Pułaski Foundation

Wiktor Wojciechowski, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Associate Professor

Marcin Wolski, PhD, Economist

Richard Woodward, CASE (Poland), Member of the Supervisory Council; University of Edinburgh Business School (UK), Lecturer in International Business

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Tomasz Wróblewski, Warsaw Enterprise Institute (Poland), CEO

Marcin Zieliński, Civil Development Forum (Poland), Economist

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