The jockeying for positions in the EU takes place every five years - following the European Parliament elections. It is the Union's most important political game. How Poland fares in it will be a gauge of its position in Europe and the influence personally of prime minister
Donald Tusk.
Each member states gets one commissioner portfolio. The stakes are high - the EU's future policy will be determined by, among other things, what portfolio 'our' commissioner is entrusted with. Poland, a rapidly developing country with a flexible, competitive economy, should be interested in Brussels's maintaining its liberal, anti-protectionist course. That is why Warsaw wants one of the economic portfolios in the Commission.
For now, the Tusk administration is close to securing the position of the president of the European Parliament for ex-PM Jerzy Buzek.
'The talks are going very well,' Mikołaj Dowgielewicz, head of the European Integration Committee Office (UKIE), told Gazeta yesterday.
The Parliament's presidency is a position of prestige rather than power and it would serve mainly to flatter Poland's ego. Mr Tusk had promised the PO voters that Mr Buzek would get it.
According to Gazeta's sources, the leaders of the large member states have made it clear to Italy's prime minister
Silvio Berlusconi that his candidate, Mario Mauro, has no chance of winning the post. Mr Tusk meets Mr Berlusconi on Thursday ahead of the EU summit. If Rome gives in, behind-the-scenes negotiations will begin on a 'consolation prize' for the Italians.
The final decision is unlikely to be made before 7 July; the actual vote in the Parliament has been scheduled for 14 July.
The European Parliament's presidency for Mr Buzek for two and a half years (the Christian Democrats share the five-year term with the Socialists) is an important element of the European power puzzle, but an element only. This is because the most important issues are decided in the EU in packages that span various institutions and political forces - the Christian Democrats, the Socialists, the Liberals.
Which EU 'ministry' Poland ultimately secures for itself will depend on, among other things, the following factors:
* how the scopes of authority of the different commissioner portfolios are defined. EU enlargement can be merged with the Eastern Partnership agenda, and the single market portfolio can be divided into, say, the free flow of capital and of services;
* whether Paris and Berlin manage to share between themselves the two most influential portfolios - single market and competition;
* how the balance of power between the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, on the one hand, and the Liberals, on the hand, works out in the Parliament.
According to Gazeta's sources, Poland is most interested in the industry, trade, single market, enlargement and Eastern Partnership portfolios. Mr Tusk has spoken of three 'natural' candidates: incumbent regional policy commissioner Danuta Hübner (who could take the industry portfolio, for example), Janusz Lewandowski (who knows the EU budget inside out and could take trade or the single market portfolios), and Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, ex-head of the Parliament's foreign affairs committee (who could take enlargement and Partnership).
Each of those three has a lot of experience in the EU. The PM apparently wants to have a freedom of manoeuvre so as to fit the candidate's profile to the portfolio that proves most easily within reach.
The filling of the EU's new power structure will begin at the EU summit Friday with the election of José Manuel Barroso for his second term as president of the Commission. The catch is that in return for Berlin's and Paris's support, Mr Barroso may be forced to silently agree for Germany and France to divide the Commission's economic portfolios between themselves and their allies. Including one portfolio that Poland is vying for - single market. The single market, competition and trade are the only areas where the Commission has real authority, negotiating international agreements, ruling on public aid, and so on.
Warsaw would prefer for Mr Barroso to receive unconditional support at the summit. In such a case, he would be able to choose the commissioners himself from among the candidates submitted by the member states. If this proves the case, Poland has a good chance for winning an important economic portfolio.
The problem is that Mr Tusk cannot play openly against Paris and Berlin, because he needs their support for Mr Buzek's bid for the Parliament presidency.
Poland still has time, though, to wrestle with Germany and France above its weight. The final round will be fought following Ireland's second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, due in October. Warsaw hopes to receive support from the new member states and, possibly, the Scandinavians.
translated by Marcin Wawrzyńczak
